Competitive Seats: Pennsylvania (Santorum) Montana (Burns) Ohio (DeWine) New Jersey (Menendez) Missouri (Talent) Rhode Island (Chafee) Tennessee (OPEN) (Frist) Maryland (OPEN) (Sarbanes)
Those not as competitive: Virginia (Allen) Minnesota (OPEN) (Dayton) Arizona (Kyl) Michigan (Stabenow) Washington (Cantwell) PA-SEN: No updates. MT-SEN: A September 13th Rasmussen poll has incumbent Conrad Burns down nine points. He has seen no improvment in his numbers through the last few months and his opponent is now about 50 percent. LIKELY TESTER OH-SEN: DeWine would lose by six were the election today, according to Rasmussen. DeWine has lost ground in every Rasmussen poll conducted since June 20th and his opponent has gained ground. DeWine fell from 46 percent to 41 percent, and Brown increased from 39 percent to 47 percent. This race is borderline between "lean" and "likely". LEAN BROWN NJ-SEN: No updates. MO-SEN: Only new poll is from Survey USA. They have McCaskill up one point which is identical to their last result here. After a Talent bounce in late August, this race is back to having a very SLIGHT ADVANTAGE MCCASKILL. RI-SEN: No updates. TN-SEN: No updates. MD-SEN: No updates, but there's a poll in Rasmussen's premium section about Maryland that should be released in a few days. VA-SEN: Rasmussen's latest has Allen up 7 and right at 50 percent, a two point improvement over a month ago. The weight of evidence in Virginia pegs this one as LIKELY ALLEN MN-SEN: No updates AZ-SEN: No updates MI-SEN: An EPIC/MRA poll has Stabenow leading by a large margin -- 19 points. Bouchard's numbers after the primary were likely inflated, and this race has a STRONG ADVANTAGE STABENOW. WA-SEN. No updates |